In the context of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the rise of global resource nationalism, the supply of new capacity has shrunk, while the downstream emerging fields are continuously expanded. Related sectors such as fluorine materials, phosphorus chemicals, aramid and other industries are expected to continue. It is also optimistic about its development prospects.
Fluorine chemical industry: The market space is constantly expanding
In 2022, the performance of fluorochemical listed companies was bright. According to incomplete statistics, in the first three quarters, the net profit of more than 10 fluorochemical listed companies increased all year -on -year, and some companies’ net profit increased by more than 6 times year -on -year. From the refrigerant to the new material of fluoride, to the new energy lithium batteries, fluoride chemical products have continuously expanded their market space with their unique performance advantages.
Fluorite is the most important front -end raw material for the fluorochemical industry chain. The hydrofluoric acid made of raw materials is the basis of modern fluorous chemical industry. As the core of the entire fluorochemical industry chain, hydrofluoric acid is the basic raw material for making midstream and downstream fluorine chemical products. The main industries of its downstream include refrigerant.
According to t he “Montreal Protocol”, in 2024, the production and use of three generations of refrigerants in my country will freeze at the baseline level. The Yangtze Securities Research Report believes that after the three -generation refrigerant quota scramble, enterprises may return to a more market -oriented supply level. The quota of the three -generation refrigerant in 2024 was officially frozen, and the cumulative quota of the second -generation refrigerant in 2025 was reduced by 67.5%. It is expected to bring a supply gap of 140,000 tons/year. In terms of demand, the toughness of the real estate industry still exists. Under the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control, industries such as home appliances may gradually recover. It is expected that three generations of refrigerant is expected to reverse from the bottom of the boom.
China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that with the rapid development of new energy, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, electronics, and medical industries, fluorine -containing intermediates, special fluoride monomer, fluoride coolant, new type of fluorine -containing fire extinguishing agent, etc. The development of new types of fluorine -containing fine chemical technology has continued to deepen. The market space of these downstream industries is continuously expanded, which will bring new growth points to fluorous chemical industry.
China Galaxy Securities and Guosen Securities believe that high -end chemical materials are expected to continue to increase the localization rate, optimistic about fluorite plates such as fluorite -refrigerant.
Phosphorus chemical industry: The scope of the downstream application is widened
In 2022, affected by supply -side structural reforms and energy consumption “dual control”, the new production capacity of phosphorus chemical products has limited production capacity and high prices, laying the performance foundation for the phosphorus chemical sector.
Phosphate ore is the basic raw material for the phosphate chemical industry chain. The downstream includes phosphate fertilizer, food -grade phosphate, lithium iron phosphate and other products. Among them, lithium iron phosphate is the most prosperous category in the current phosphate chemical industry chain.
It is understood that every 1 ton of iron phosphate is produced by 0.5 ~ 0.65 tons, and 0.8 tons of one ammonium phosphate. The high -speed growth of lithium iron phosphate demand along the industrial chain to the upstream transmission will increase the demand for phosphate ore in the field of new energy. In the actual production process, the 1gWh lithium iron phosphate battery requires 2500 tons of lithium iron phosphate orthopedic materials, corresponding to 1440 tons of phosphate (folding, that is, P2O5 = 100%). It is estimated that by 2025, the demand for iron phosphate will reach 1.914 million tons, and the corresponding demand for phosphate ore will be 1.11 million tons, accounting for approximately 4.2%of the total demand for phosphate ore.
Guosen Securities Research Report believes that multi -party factors will jointly promote the continuous high prosperity of the phosphorus chemical industry chain. From the perspective of upstream, in the context of the increase in the entry threshold of the industry in the future and the high pressure of environmental protection, its supply side will continue to tighten, and the scarcity attributes of resources are prominent. Overlapping foreign energy prices have risen to promote the high cost of phosphorus chemicals abroad, and the cost advantage of relevant domestic enterprises has appeared. In addition, the global grain crisis and agricultural prosperity cycle will promote the upward demand for phosphate fertilizer; the explosive growth of iron phosphate batteries also provides important incremental increase in demand for phosphate ore.
Capital Securities said that the root cause of a new round of global resource inflation is the capacity cycle of production, including the inadequate capital expenditure in the past 5-10 years of mineral resources, including the lack of capital expenditure in the past 5-10 years, and the release of new capacity will take a long time. The tension of the year phosphorus ore supply is difficult to alleviate.
Open source securities believe that the new energy track has continued high prosperity and has been optimistic about the upstream materials such as phosphorus chemicals for a long time.
Aramid：Innovation to achieve an incremental business
With the rapid development of the information industry, aramid has increasingly attracted attention from the capital market.
Aramid fiber is one of the three high -performance fibers in the world. It is included in the national strategic emerging industry and is also a strategic high -end material for the country’s long -term support. In April 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly proposed that it is necessary to improve the level of high -performance fiber production and support the application of aramid in the high -end high -end field.
The aramid has two structured forms of the aramid and the medium, and the main downstream includes the fiber fiber cable industries. Data show that in 2021, the global aramid market size was US $ 3.9 billion, and it is expected to increase to US $ 6.3 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.7%.
In recent years,China’s optical fiber cable industry has developed rapidly and has jumped in the world’s first place. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total length of the national optical cable line in 2021 reached 54.88 million kilometers, and the demand for high -profile aramid products was close to 4,000 tons, of which 90%still rely on imports. As of the first half of 2022, the total length of the national optical cable line reached 57.91 million kilometers, an increase of 8.2%year -on -year.
Yangtze Securities, Huaxin Securities, and Guosen Securities believe that in terms of application, the standards of self -protection equipment in the middle of the aramid will gradually advance, and the demand for the aramid in the field of optical communication and rubber will remain strong. In addition, the market demand for lithium -electrodermilida coating market is broad. With the acceleration of domestic alternatives of the aramid, the level of domesticization in the future is expected to increase significantly, and the relevant sector stocks are worthy of attention.
Post time: Jan-10-2023