Since February, the domestic polymerization of diphenyl methane diisocyanate (MDI) market deduction Yin down, but raw material prices rose more and less, such as February 20 in Shandong region aniline rose 1000 yuan (ton price, the same below). “Cost end support strong overlay downstream demand gradually recovery, or will drive the aggregate MDI market out of the stalemate situation, open up the market.” A number of people in the industry have made the above research and judgment.
Strong cost support
Raw material aniline accounts for 75% of MDI’s cost. Recently, the price of aniline is rising, and MDI’s cost support is strengthened.
Up to February 21, the market price of North China aniline was 12,200 yuan, increased by 1950 yuan compared with January 28, an increase of 19.12%; From February 17, up 1200 yuan, or 10.96%.
“The sharp rise in the aniline market is mainly caused by the increase of middle and downstream orders. The demand for aniline increased, and a number of production units will be shut down for maintenance, market confidence boosted, manufacturers quickly destocking, and the price of aniline rose sharply.” Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group chief engineer Wang Quanping analysis said.
At present, Nanhua has stopped a 100,000 tons/year aniline device; Chongqing BASF 300,000 tons/year installation plan parking, expected to last 1 month; Ningbo Wanhua 720,000 tons/year device 50% load operation.
From aniline upstream point of view, the domestic pure benzene market strong shock. East China downstream active implementation of delivery orders, port inventory decreased slightly. The United States pure benzene market rose, the outside price went up, the domestic price of pure benzene “concave”, the holder of more bullish afternoon.
“Before the aniline price did not rise, the average profit of domestic polymerization MDI factory was about 3273 yuan. The surge in raw materials will inevitably compress the profit space of polymerization MDI, enhance the willingness of manufacturers to price.” Wang Quanping said that in the afternoon market, the supply of aniline is obviously reduced, and the inventory may fall to a lower level. It is expected that the price of aniline will continue to rise in the short term, forming support for the polymerized MDI market in the face of cost.
Demand stepwise repair
As a polymeric MDI downstream polyether market has gradually improved recently. Driven by propylene oxide as a raw material, the polyether market opens a pull-up mode. Nearly 1 month, the polyether price rose less, the center of gravity, the Spring Festival has risen 800 yuan.
From the supply side, polyether cargo is sufficient, but the main import source of goods to keep tight state. Large factories in the north and south are willing to support the market, and most of the operating space of polyether plants is still limited by propylene oxide. In addition, manufacturers have a certain inventory, and after the Spring Festival, the propylene oxide market is in a shock upward trend, and the inventory cost of finished products is not low. It is estimated that high shipment willingness is the mainstream in the near future.
“Recently, the import of goods is expected to supplement, but the amount of soft bubble polyether is less, the main domestic factory stick to the attitude of the city.” Shandong Institute of industry and information Technology professors-level senior engineer Pan Jinsong said.
From the perspective of demand, the order of the downstream internal trade sponge orders are relatively stable, and the main consumption of raw materials for production enterprises will be held in March. In March, a furniture exhibition will be held, or it will bring good benefits to the raw material market. The order of export sponge enterprises is generally. It is Amazon Member Month in July. It is expected that it will have a certain leading role in export -type sponge enterprises after April.
From the perspective of raw materials, the newly added decoration of the oxide of the oxide in late February is only satellite petrochemical, and the expected expectations of the Ida device or resumption of restarts. The remaining devices have no significant increase in the current. With the parking of the first phase of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, the market supply is not high, and the cost support is superimposed. It is expected that the prices of oxide propyne is prone to rising and difficult to decline, and it still supports the polyether market.
On the whole, there are signs of the end demand, which will drive the aggregate MDI market to rise.
Expected shrinkage of supply
At present, the decline of the domestic aggregate MDI market has slowed down, and the offer price is mostly 15,500 ~ 15,800 yuan, and the offer price of imported goods (MR200, M200) is 15,300 ~ 15,600 yuan.
“At present, the price of aggregation MDI is still at a low level in nearly three years.Under the prospect of optimized epidemic prevention and control policies and pending economic recovery, the converged MDI market slowly rises in stages. Suppliers exchange time for space and gradually push up through market regulation according to the pace of consumption at the demand end.” Pan Jinsong said.
From the supply side, the supply is limited, aggregate MDI offers remain high, the market attitude is cautious. With the maintenance of suppliers and slow delivery, the demand order is more concentrated, the buying atmosphere is heating up, and the center of gravity of aggregation MDI field is moving up.
In terms of equipment, the 400,000 tons/year MDI equipment in Chongqing entered the maintenance state on February 5, which is expected to last until mid-March. Ningbo 800,000 tons/year equipment will be stopped for maintenance from February 13th, lasting for about 30 days. Aggregate MDI production is expected to be about 152,000 tons in February, down 23,300 tons from the previous month.
In summary, the strong cost support of aggregate MDI, the expected shrinkage of market supply, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the three combined forces may help the MDI market get rid of the dull and out of a wave of uptrend.
Post time: Mar-06-2023