The year 2023 creeps in. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the strength of measures to stabilize growth and the low base effect, several research institutions forecast that China’s year-on-year GDP growth will rebound significantly this year. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the chemical industry links various resources and energy upstream, while the downstream is directly related to the daily necessities of the people. In 2023, the chemical industry should consider both inventory cycle fluctuations and track switching, so which areas will become the strongest capital tuyere? In order to satisfy readers, the petroleum and chemical investment strategies of securities companies such as Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities and China Merchants Securities will be comprehensively sorted out.
The recent Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, and the recent adjustment of the epidemic control policy has accelerated the recovery of the domestic consumer market. Under the comprehensive expectation, a number of brokerages believe that: In 2023, the demand for some chemical products is expected to recover growth, and the new chemical material plate involved in the upgrading of new energy, energy storage, semiconductor and military industry will still maintain a high business. Among them, semiconductor materials, photovoltaic materials, lithium materials and so on are particularly worthy of investors’ attention.
Semiconductor materials: take advantage of domestic substitution to accelerate progress
In 2022, due to the global economic environment and industry prosperity cycle fluctuations and the repeated impact of the epidemic, the entire electronics industry faced certain operating pressure. But in general, China’s semiconductor industry is still growing.
Guoxin Securities Research Report pointed out that the localization rate of semiconductor materials in my country was only about 10%in 2021, and it was disadvantaged in terms of category richness and competitiveness. However, in the long run, my country’s integrated circuit industry will embark on the road of independent innovation. It is expected that domestic materials and equipment can get more resources and opportunities, and the domestic alternative cycle is expected to shorten.
In recent years, the demand for semiconductor applications and consumer markets has increased steadily. In 2021, global semiconductor sales reached 555.9 billion US dollars, an increase of US $ 45.5 billion over 2020; it is expected to continue to grow in 2022, and semiconductor sales will reach US $ 601.4 billion. There are many types of semiconductor materials, and the top three in the market share are silicon wafers, gases, and light molding. In addition, the market share of polishing fluid and polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, and sputtering targets is 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, and 3.0%, respectively.
Guangfa Securities Research Report believes that cutting into the field of semiconductor materials (electronic chemicals) through endogenous research and development or extension mergers and acquisitions is a more common model for chemical enterprises to seek transformation in recent years. While successful transformation companies can get higher market valuations while gaining a faster industry, we have ushered in a wave of dual growth. In the wave of rapid development of the domestic semiconductor industry, related material companies also ushered in a good opportunity for domestic replacement. Some companies with strong R & D strength and successful client levels, and successful product transformation and upgrading are expected to share the rapid development of the semiconductor industry.
Ping An Securities Research reports that there are many factors such as “silicon cycle” and macroeconomic cycles, and the semiconductor industry is expected to bottom out in 2023.
The Western Securities Research Report believes that the increase in US export control will accelerate the domestic alternative of semiconductor materials. They are optimistic about semiconductor materials, components and related equipment, and silicon carbide market.
Photovoltaic Material: Ten billion -level POE market is waiting to break through
In 2022, under the promotion of my country’s policy, the number of new installations in the domestic photovoltaic industry increased significantly, and the demand for photovoltaic glue film also increased.
Photovoltaic glue film raw materials are divided into two types: ethylene -ethyl acetate community (EVA) and polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, as the current mainstream raw material of photovoltaic glue film, has a high degree of import dependence, and has a large space for localization in the future. At the same time, it is expected that the demand for EVA in the field of photovoltaic glue film in my country in 2025 can reach up to 45.05%.
Another mainstream raw material POE can be applied to photovoltaic, automobiles, cables, foaming, home appliances and other fields. At present, photovoltaic packaging glue film has become the largest application area of POE. According to the “China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)”, the market proportion of domestic POE glue film and foam polyethylene (EPE) glue film in 2021 has increased to 23.1%. In recent years, with the continuous rise in the output of photovoltaic components in my country and the continuous penetration of POE in photovoltaic glue film, domestic POE demand has steadily increased.
However, because the POE production process has high barriers, at present, domestic companies do not have the capacity of POE, and all POE consumption in my country relies on imports. Since 2017, domestic enterprises have successively developed POE products. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry and other private enterprises are expected to achieve domestic replacement of POE in the future.
Lithium battery materials: the shipments of the four main materials have been further increased
In 2022, China’s new energy vehicle and lithium battery energy storage market remained high, driving the shipments of lithium battery materials to increase significantly. According to the China Automobile Association data, from January to November 2022, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles completed 6.253 million and 6.067 million, respectively, a average year -on -year increase, and the market share reached 25%.
The High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) is expected to sell more than 6.7 million domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2022; it is expected that China’s new energy vehicle market will exceed 9 million in 2023. In 2022, China’s lithium battery shipment growth rate is expected to exceed 100%, the growth rate of power battery shipments is expected to exceed 110%, and the growth rate of energy storage lithium battery shipments exceeds 150%. The significant growth of lithium battery shipments has driven the four main materials of positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, and other lithium battery materials such as lithium hexfluorophosphate and copper foil to varying degrees.
Data show that in the first half of 2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials shipped 770,000 tons, an increase of 62%year -on -year; the shipments of negative electrode materials were 540,000 tons, an increase of 68%year -on -year; 55%; electrolyte shipments were 330,000 tons, an increase of 63%year -on -year. On the whole, in 2022, the overall shipments of the four major lithium battery in China remained the growth trend.
GGII predicts that the domestic lithium battery market will exceed 1TWh in 2023. Among them, power battery shipments are expected to exceed 800GWh, and energy storage battery shipments will exceed 180GWh, which will drive the overall shipments of the four major lithium batteries to further increase.
Although the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt fell in December 2022. However, in the eyes of brokers, this is mainly due to the off -season effect, and the “inflection point” of lithium prices has not arrived.
Huaxi Securities believes that the fluctuation of the price of lithium salt is the normal fluctuation of the peak season of the industry, not a “inflection point”. Shen Wanhongyuan Securities also believes that with the further release of raw materials production capacity in 2023, the trend of the profit of the lithium battery industry chain chain will continue from top to bottom. Zhejiang Business Securities believes that the marginal confession of lithium resources is greater than required in the second half of 2023.
Post time: Jan-10-2023