Looking forward to the styling market in 2023, industry insiders believe that the market may be in a high and low operation trend. This year is still a year when the production capacity of the styrene has expanded rapidly. The overlapping half -year anti -dumping is over. Foreign products or sweeping to suppress the domestic market. At the same time, the downstream capacity is released. Besium below 2022, the profit is difficult to increase.
Output growth may be 17%
“In 2022, the domestic styrene capacity is still at a high growth channel, and the growth rate is expected to reach 20%, which will become the fastest product of the industry chain in the industry chain. Due to the rapid release of the new production capacity of the styrene, the increase in production and sales pressure will increase, and the capacity utilization rate will not be as good as possible. It is expected that it may be around 78%. “Kim Lianchuang analyst Wang Li believes.
Wang Li said that in 2023, new devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical, Zibo Junchen, Guangdong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical may be put into production, and the production capacity growth rate of styrene is expected to reach 23%. If the commissioning is delayed due to the extension of the contradiction between supply and demand, the growth rate of the styrene output this year may be 17%.
Affected by this, this year’s styrene market runs or has a high and low trend, and the average price of the year will be less than 2022. Specifically, the predictions of rising prices in the second quarter. On the one hand, due to the continued expansion of the styrene this year, the pressure on production in the first quarter was greater, and the demand for superimposed during the Spring Festival was weakened. On the other hand, the demand in the second quarter was expected to recover, and the downstream production will also follow up. In the third and fourth quarters, the supply of styrene is at a high level and the demand gradually weakened, and the price may decline. It is worth noting that during the centralized maintenance of the styrene device, there may be a wave of rising markets, but the increase is limited.
In addition, another factor that affects the fluctuations of the styrene market this year is that anti -dumping will end. On June 22, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling of anti -dumping surveys native to South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. After the end of the anti -dumping in June this year, China, as the largest consumer country in the world’s styrene, will attract the attention of the global styrene manufacturers. Although the new production capacity of the domestic styrene is continuously released and import dependence continues to decrease, the flow of supply will continue, and the new arbitrage path will gradually form, or it will put pressure on the domestic market within a certain period of time.
The profit space continues to narrow
In 2022, except for the ingenuylene industry in the third quarter, the rest of the time was basically in a loss of loss. The theoretical loss of up to 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), with an average of 379 yuan in a year.
Han Xiaoxiao, an analyst of Longzhong Information, believes that in addition to the significant release of new production capacity, another important factor is that high cost continues to pressure. Pure benzene is one of the main raw materials of the styrene, and its price fluctuations are critical to the trend of the styrene.
In the first half of 2022, the price of pure benzene rose sharply due to tight supply and a record high outside price, and slowed down in the second half of the year due to terminal negative and port inventory accumulation, with the annual average price approaching 9,000 yuan.
In the past two years, the price difference between pure benzene and styrene has narrowed substantially. In previous years, the price difference between pure benzene and styrene was maintained in 2000 ~ 2500 yuan, narrowed to 1000 ~ 1500 yuan in the past two years, and sometimes only 200 ~ 500 yuan. In 2022, styrene industry chain with good profit products for raw material end pure benzene.
In 2023, the price of pure benzene in the first half of the year or high shock, the second half of the year or high fall risk. There are more downstream industries of pure benzene. From the point of view of consumption proportion, styrene is still the largest product of pure benzene consumption, accounting for about 47%. At the same time, this year styrene capacity continues to expand rapidly, demand for pure benzene is still rising channel. In the “double carbon” background, due to the coking industry operating rate is insufficient, superimposed raw material supply synchronization limited, is expected this year the price of pure benzene is expected to maintain a high finishing situation.
In the high cost plus holding, the downstream styrene industry production and operation is still facing greater pressure, profit space or will continue to be squeezed.
Contradictions of supply and demand are unreasonable
Polystyeyrene (PS), Hair Polystyeyrene (EPS), Acryl -butadiene -Tartylene Total Poin (ABS) is the three major downstream of the styrene, accounting for nearly 70 total consumption of styrene %. Insiders believe that the overall production capacity of these three main downstream downstream this year is low. Under the expectations of improvement in the inside, if the downstream is optimistic about the actual consumption of the raw materials, the actual growth rate of ABS, PS, and EPS is expected It was 12%, 6%, and 3%, which was significantly lower than the production growth rate of 17%of the styrene. This also means that the contradiction between the supply and demand of the styrene is still difficult to effectively alleviate.
In 2023, the supply of styrene is gradually saturated. Although the demand is expected to increase, the growth rate is far less than the growth rate of the styrene, and exports will continue to become an important channel for the reduction of production and sales pressure to reduce production and sales. In terms of imports, with the cancellation of the anti -dumping duty of the styrene, China and South Korea tariffs will decline significantly. It is expected that the overall import volume of the styrene in the second half of the year will increase slightly. However, the increase of styrene import will not be too large due to the increase of the competitive ability of RMB.
Post time: Feb-16-2023