n 2022, affected by factors such as domestic epidemic and overseas inflation, chemical demand for short -term pressure, and domestic manufacturers have de -inventory pressure in the short term. At the same time, the turbulence of the international situation pushed the high -level operation of large energy prices, which caused a certain pressure on the upstream cost end. There are obvious differentiation. Some materials have been sorted out and found that in the past two years, the prices of some products have skyrocketed by 700%, and the market space has continued to expand. Looking forward to 2023, where is the opportunity?
The 700% increased within two years, the raw material orders are scheduled for next year
Lithium Hydroxide: multiple downstream manufacturers snapped up
Under the market situation of tight supply and demand, lithium hydroxide was snapped up by downstream manufacturers.
Yahua Group announced that the company’s wholly -owned subsidiary Yahua Lithium (Ya’an) and SK’s Aisi Kai New Energy (Shanghai) signed a battery -level lithium hydroxide supply contract. Ya’an Lithium ensures that from 2023 to 2025, it provides products from Aisi, with a total supply of 20,000 to 30,000 tons.
Aiscai has also signed the “Sales Contract (2023-2025)” with Tianyi Lithium and Sichuan Tianhua to sell battery grade lithium hydroxide products to Aiskai beginning in 2023, under which the contract provides for uniform delivery every month and annual shipments not exceeding the total amount agreed in the contract (within ±10%).
In addition to battery companies, car companies are also actively competing for lithium hydrogen oxide. Mercedes-Benz announced an agreement with Canada-Germany Rock Tech Lithium. On average, the former will purchase 10,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide from the latter each year, with a transaction scale of 1.5 billion euros. GM and LIG New Energy and Lithium Technology Company Livent have signed many years of agreement to ensure that the key raw materials for making electric vehicle batteries. Among them, Livent will supply battery -grade lithium hydroxide to General Motors within 6 years starting in 2025.
From the perspective of market data, combined with the current development progress of upstream lithium resources, the construction of lithium salt processing enterprises, and the expansion of new energy downstream enterprises, the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide is still in a tight balance, and it is expected to continue until 2023.
PVDF: 7 times soaring in price, it is hard to fill for the supply gap
As the downstream market continues to heat up, the supply and demand gap of lithium battery PVDF continues to increase, and the production capacity of raw materials R142B is overwhelmed, and the market supply is serious. The market price of lithium -battery PVDF has climbed to 700,000 yuan/ton, which is nearly 7 times compared with the price of early 2021.
Due to the limited PVDF production capacity of lithium batteries in China, and ordinary PVDF production capacity cannot be converted into a lithium battery -level PVDF in a short period of time, the construction of raw materials R142B is strictly controlled and expanded slowly, resulting in the slow release of domestic lithium battery PVDF production capacity. It is difficult to make up for it. With the further increase in sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, the PVDF market in 2022 is expected to maintain a high prosperity state, support PVDF prices, and help PVDF companies have further increased their annual performance.
PVP: The delivery date of some products will be queued to January
Under the pinch of geographical conflicts and energy crisis, the production capacity of European chemical giants has declined, orders for domestic companies have surged, and relevant people from domestic PVP manufacturers said that “the company’s PVP -related products have a serious backlog, and the delivery period of some products has been ranked until next year. January.”
Relevant sources of a PVP manufacturer said that the current PVP production capacity of the European manufacturers has declined significantly, and a large number of overseas orders have begun to divert to domestic enterprises. At present, the company has a backlog of nearly 1000 tons of PVP products, and the delivery of some products is scheduled to the end of the year or even January next year.
Photovoltaic industry: Order book through 2030
Daqo Energy has signed a Purchase Agreement with a customer. It is agreed in the contract that a customer is expected to purchase 148,800 tons of Sun-level first-grade free-wash blocks from Daqo Energy from January 2023 to December 2027, and the estimated purchase amount is 45.086 billion yuan. Since 2022, Daqo Energy has signed eight major contracts totaling about 370 billion yuan.
Longji Green Energy and its nine subsidiaries have signed a long order purchase agreement for polysilicon materials with Daqo Energy subsidiary Inner Mongolia Daqo New Energy. According to the agreement, the transaction quantity of polysilicon materials between the two parties from May 2023 to December 2027 was 25.128 million tons. The total amount of this contract is about 67.156 billion yuan.
Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., LTD., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shuangliang Energy Saving Co., Ltd. has signed the Polysilicon Purchase and Supply Contract with relevant parties. It is agreed in this contract that Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd. is expected to purchase 155,300 tons of polysilicon materials from 2022 to 2027, with an estimated purchase amount of RMB 47.056 billion.
At present, China’s photovoltaic industry still presents a relatively good development trend. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of photovoltaic industry exceeds 100%, and the export of photovoltaic industry exceeds 40 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 100%. Since the beginning of this year, a number of listed silicon companies have frequently announced major contract announcements, and have signed more than 10 long-term silicon sales orders, the total size of which exceeds 3 million tons and the amount exceeds 800 billion yuan. About 92% of the output of the silicon industry in 2022 has been locked by downstream enterprises, and some long-term contracts have been signed until 2030.
New tracks such as new materials and demand recovery are expected to emerge in 2023
At present, the chemical industry is shifting from large -scale manufacturing to high -quality manufacturing. New materials with low penetration rates in Chinese enterprises have sprung up, and new materials such as silicon materials, lithium battery, POE, and new materials are accelerated. At the same time, the downstream demand is gradually opened. The impact of the epidemic in 2023 has gradually weakened, and demand is expected to accelerate the investment opportunities of the new track.
At present, the prices of major chemicals have fallen and are in the bottom range. As of December 2, the Chinese Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) closed at 4,819 points, a decrease of 7.86%from 5230 points at the beginning of this year.
We believe that the global economy is expected to grow steadily in 2023, especially the domestic economy is expected to usher in a new round of recovery. The industry leader will achieve performance growth at the stage of demand repair. In addition, new tracks such as new materials and demand recovery have exploded. Accelerate release. For 2023, we focus on the three categories of products:
(1) Synthetic biology: In the background of carbon neutrality, fossil -based materials may face subversive impact, biological material materials will usher in a turning point with excellent performance and cost advantages. Large -scale applications in other fields, synthetic biology, as a new way of production, is expected to usher in a wonderful moment, and market demand is expected to gradually open.
(2) New materials: The importance of chemical supply chain safety further highlights, the establishment of an independent and controllable industrial system is imminent, some new materials are expected to accelerate the realization of domestic replacement, such as high-performance molecular sieve and catalyst, aluminum adsorption materials, aerogels, negative electrode coating materials and other new materials permeability and market share will gradually increase, the new material track is expected to accelerate growth.
(3) Revelation of real estate & consumer demand: With the government’s release of signals to loosen the property market and optimize the precision prevention and control strategy of the epidemic, the marginal improvement of real estate policies, the prosperity of consumption and real estate chain is expected to be repaired, and real estate and consumer chain chemical products are expected to benefit.
Post time: Dec-20-2022