Since the beginning of the year, the silicone DMC market has changed the decline in 2022, and the rebound market has been quickly turned on after success. As of February 16, the average market price was 17,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the half month increased by 680 yuan, an increase of 4.04%. At present, downstream demand is gradually launched, the industry’s mentality is positive, and the short -term silicon market will run steadily.
Ten months of decline have finally reversed
“After the organic silicon industry has experienced a long period of decline, it has begun to usher in upward.” Xiao Jing, Anxin Futures analyst, pointed out that after the Lantern Festival, due to the densely resumed work of infrastructure real estate, the organic silicon order improved, and the downstream product quotation stopped falling and rebounded. , The market is mildly repaired.
According to statistics from business clubs, since March 2022, the silicon DMC market has a unilateral downward trend and will continue to the end of the year. At a 10 -month decline, the average market price fell 22,300 yuan, a decrease of 57.37%. Entering 2023, the organic silicon market has quickly bottomed out, and the increase has reached 5.8%as of now.
According to the State Investment Anxin Futures Research Report, in addition to the benefits of the re -work of downstream real estate projects, other downstream industrial chains have also shown a rising trend across the board, and the silicon price has stabilized. The enthusiasm of the premium and downstream of the festival is high, the order is delivered after the holiday, the silicon inventory has declined significantly, and the average market price has increased significantly.
From the perspective of specific downstream products, 107 glue is active due to stocking before the holiday, and some inventory is transferred, and the manufacturers are sufficient; in terms of silicon oil, in addition to the low -level stimulation of the early raw materials, the manufacturer’s active stocking, the downstream textiles, daily chemicals, silicone, etc. The industry has a trend of recovery, supporting silicon oil in the form of embarrassment; in terms of raw glue and mixed glue, the recent local exploration of carbonate of raw materials has increased to enhance market confidence. Enterprise placing an order, the order situation is ideal.
The active market transaction also drives the continuous raising product quotation of organic silicon dealers. Taking a distributor in Shandong as an example.During 8 days from February 8 to 15, the price of silicone DMC products produced by Dongyue Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong was adjusted for 6 times, with the price increasing by 1000 yuan. The price of silicone DMC products produced by Luxi Chemical Industry has been adjusted five times, and the price has increased by 1,800 yuan in total.
Demand is easy to drive the market outlook
Can the rising market for the start of the silicon DMC market that starts well?
The person in charge of Hesheng Silicon industry said: “With the comprehensive recovery of the economy, the demand for silicon will be recovered. Organic silicon use is wide. Last year, even if the price fell to a profit and loss balance line, the overall market still showed a growth trend. time.”
“Organic silicon materials are widely used, covering all aspects of life. Among them, the construction materials industry accounts for the largest proportion, reaching 34%.” Guozhong Anxin Futures pointed out in the research report that since this year, the real estate market has been introduced densely. The real estate industry shows the overall recovery trend, which will drive the needs of silicon silicon in the real estate back end and home decoration.
In addition, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle field also brings new demand growth space to the silicone market. According to the Passenger Car Market Information Association, the penetration rate of new energy in passenger vehicles reached 27.6 percent in 2022, up 12.6 percentage points from 2021. In the future, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will still increase rapidly and is expected to reach 36% in 2023. It is understood that the organic silica gel consumption of new energy vehicles is as much as 20 kg, about 7 times that of ordinary commercial vehicles. China Merchants Futures analysts pointed out that silicone thermal conductive silicone as an excellent thermal conductivity, insulation material, with the new energy vehicle manufacturers for safety requirements are increasingly high, thermal conductive silicone will be more and more widely used, so the demand for new energy vehicles for silicone is expected to rise further.
Cost support gradually stable
At present, under demand drive, the relationship between silicon supply and demand has formed a favorable factor, and another major driving factor of the pricing logic of organic silicon -cost support will gradually stabilize.
Open source Securities pointed out that on the one hand, the price of silicon in the early stage of industrial silicon fell a large decline. The transaction price was approaching the cost line, and the domestic silicon factories’ willingness to raise prices increased, so the space for the continued decline in prices decreased.
On the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side, the main origin of industrial silicon is affected by high electricity prices and low transaction prices, and the operating rate has been significantly reduced. Recently, the Sichuan industrial silicon stove rate is close to 70%. At about 50%, the price willingness of the two places to increase the price is increased. In terms of demand side, the downstream terminals after the Lantern Festival have been resumed and re -production, which is superimposed in the small peak season of traditional demand in the first quarter of this year, and market confidence is gradually increasing. At the same time, the new production capacity of downstream polysilicon continues to release, and organic silicon manufacturers continue to increase the operating rate. Relevant traders are optimistic about industrial silicon markets.
Combined with the current macro environment, industrial silicon production and traders’ sentiment, SCIC Anxin Futures also believes that the silicon price is expected to maintain a moderate and steady upward trend under the background of high certainty of domestic economic recovery. Since the beginning of this year, although the industrial silicon decline reached 5.67%, but with the stability of silicon price recovery, the cost support of organosilicon will gradually change from weak to strong.
In summary, compared with last year’s average price of organic silicon 38,800 yuan high, the current price of organic silicon is still at the bottom of the wandering stage, manufacturers have a strong desire to restore profits. It is expected that in the future market, under the background of steady improvement of macroeconomic environment, the combined effect of demand side driving and cost side stabilizing, the long-lost silicone DMC market will have a great probability to improve.
Post time: Feb-22-2023