The spring breeze is warm, and everything is recovered. The fields and greenhouses are showing a busy scene of diligent spring early spring. As the weather is warming, agricultural production is advanced from south to north, and the peak season for phosphate fertilizer has also arrived. “Although the fertilizer season is delayed this year, the operating rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry has increased significantly after the Spring Festival. The supply of phosphate fertilizer reserve is guaranteed, which can fully meet the needs of spring farming and use In the case of the overall conservation, the price of phosphate fertilizer during spring plowing will remain smoothly.
Strong supply and demand guarantee
After the Spring Festival, with the rigid demand of the spring farming market started one after another, coupled with the implementation of the national policy of ensuring supply and stable price, the overall operating rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry continued to rise, and the output gradually increased. “Although some enterprises have encountered difficulties in phosphate ore procurement, most of them have sufficient raw fuels such as phosphate ore, sulfur and synthetic ammonia, and normal plant production. The overall capacity utilization rate of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate industry is nearly 70%.” “Wang Ying said.
The oversupply of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in China is serious, so although there is a large number of exports every year, it can still guarantee the domestic supply. At present, the phosphate fertilizer industry in the operating rate does not reach 80% of the case, not only to meet the domestic demand, but also to orderly export, so there is no problem in spring farming supply.
According to Li Hui, director of the China Fertilizer Information Center, the just -released Central Document No. 1 once again mentioned the problem of food safety and stable production and increased production, which stimulated farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, thereby improving the needs of agricultural products such as phosphating fertilizer. In addition, the increased proportion of new fertilizer and environmental protection new fertilizer based on slow -controlling release fertilizer, nitro compound fertilizer, water -soluble fertilizer, microbial fertilizer and package fertilizer, etc., has also promoted the growth of phosphate fertilizer demand to a certain extent.
“In February, the average inventory of cyclopylodium -phosphate companies was about 69,000 tons, an increase of 118.92%year -on -year; the average inventory of one ammonium -phosphate enterprise was about 83,800 tons, an increase of 4.09%year -on -year.” Under the overall macro policy regulation of the state -owned state -guaranteed price, it is expected that the supply of spring plowing fertilizer in the phosphate fertilizer market is expected to be guaranteed.
Prices are stable and improving
At present, the phosphorus regeneration market is in the peak season of spring plowing. The country has introduced a series of policies for supply stability, and the price of phosphate fertilizer is expected to rebound.
“The price of phosphorus ore has risen steadily, the price of sulfur is up upward, liquid ammonia is stable and good, and comprehensive factors promote the support of phosphate fertilizer cost support.” Qiao Liying said.
Wang Fuguang analyzed that the current supply of domestic phosphorus ore resources is tight, the inventory is generally low, and the number of enterprises is sufficient. On the whole, due to the tightness of phosphate ore resources, the market supply is tightening, and the price of short -term phosphate ore still maintains a high level.
It is understood that the Yangtze River port granular yellow mainstream offer 1300 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared to the previous rise of 30 yuan. The trend of phosphate ore market is good, and the price is pushed up slightly. The quotation of 30% phosphate ore vehicle plate in Guizhou area is 980 ~ 1100 yuan, the quotation of 30% phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is 1035 ~ 1045 yuan, and the quotation of 30% phosphate ore in Yunnan area is 1050 yuan or above. The repair and failure of synthetic ammonia plant has not been fully recovered, and the market supply is still tight, which leads to the price of synthetic ammonia being raised again, by 50 ~ 100 yuan in central and eastern China.
“Phosphate ore is a strategic reserve resource, restricted by safety, environmental protection and other factors, affecting the mining of mines, leading to its relatively strong price. And sulfur needs a large number of imports, recent sulfur, sulfuric acid prices are also rising, virtually increasing the production cost of phosphate fertilizer. I think the price of phosphorus fertilizer will be relatively stable during the spring ploughing period, but there is also the possibility of a small upside.” Zhao Chengyun said.
At present, the raw material end of monoammonium phosphate continues to rise, the positive support is enhanced, Hubei 55% powder monoammonium phosphate mainstream factory quotation of 3200 ~ 3350 yuan, the downstream compound fertilizer procurement mentality has recovered, the future market is expected to increase dealers purchasing, monoammonium phosphate market will also heat up; The market sentiment of diammonium phosphate improved, Hubei area 64% of the factory mainstream quotation of diammonium phosphate about 3800 yuan, the market to speed up, downstream traders wait-and-see sentiment slightly weakened.
Avoid centralized purchasing
Industry insiders believe that, although this year’s spring farming fertilizer time delayed about 20 days, but with the arrival of rigid demand, phosphate fertilizer prices will still be stable and small, dealers to purchase in advance to avoid centralized buying caused by the risk of price increases.
“Overall, the current phosphate fertilizer market stalemate operation, short-term price to stabilize. In the long run, we should pay more attention to changes in raw materials, spring farming demand, and export policies. ‘Joli Ying said.
“Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is strong, driving the demand for phosphate, wetting method to purify phosphate, and industrial phosphate. It runs with a relatively stable situation. “Wang Ying said that the phosphate fertilizer industry should face up to the reasonable range of price, pay attention to the impact of climate disasters on agriculture and the expansion of the planting area, and make research and judgment in the changes of many related factors, avoid risks, realize the industry, realize the industry Stable operation and strive for maximum benefits.
Wang Fuguang called on compound fertilizer enterprises and agricultural capital dealers to actively participate in spring plowing fertilizer, correctly look at the current market conditions, rationally reserve spring plowing and use fertilizer and summer fertilizer. Price imbalance.
Post time: Mar-15-2023