At the 2023 Spring nitrogen fertilizer market analysis meeting held in Jincheng, Shanxi Province last week, Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, pointed out that in 2022, all nitrogen fertilizer enterprises will successfully complete the nitrogen fertilizer supply guarantee task under the complex situation of poor industrial chain and supply chain, tight commodity supply and high prices. From the current situation, nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand are expected to increase in 2023, and the overall balance is maintained.
Supply increased slightly
Energy supply is an important support for nitrogen fertilizer production. Last year, the global energy crisis caused a global energy crisis due to the Russian -Ukraine conflict, which instructed a great impact on nitrogen fertilizer production. Gu Zongqin said that the market trend of international energy, food and chemical fertilizers this year still has great uncertainty, and it will also have a great impact on the development of the industry.
Regarding the trend of the nitrogen fertilizer industry this year, Wei Yong, director of the Information and Marketing Department of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, believes that this year’s nitrogen fertilizer supply will not be affected by external factors. This is because the nitrogen fertilizer market will be released this year. In the first half of the year, the new production capacity of nitrogen fertilizer has 300,000 tons/year urea device in Xinjiang; about 2.9 million tons of new capacity and 1.7 million tons of replacement capacity in the second half of the year are put into production. Generally speaking, the 2 million tons of urea production capacity put into production at the end of 2022 and about 2.5 million tons of production capacity planned in 2023 will make the supply of nitrogen fertilizer this year more sufficient.
Agricultural demand stable
Wei Yong said that in 2023, the Central Central Document No. 1 requires full efforts to grasp the production of food to ensure that the national grain output is maintained at more than 1.3 trillion kg. All provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) must stabilize the area, focus on production, and strive to increase production. Therefore, this year’s demand for nitrogen fertilizer’s rigidity will continue to increase. However, the amount used to replace potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer will decrease, mainly due to the sharp decline in sulfur prices, the cost of production of phosphate fertilizer decreased, the contradiction between the supply and demand of potassium fertilizers is relieved, and the alternative of nitrogen fertilizer on phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer is expected to decrease.
Tian Youguo, deputy director of the National Crop Seeds and Fertilizer Quality Inspection Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, predicted that the demand for domestic fertilizer in 2023 was about 50.65 million tons, and the annual supply was more than 57.8 million tons, and the supply was more than 7.2 million tons. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer is expected to be 25.41 million tons, phosphate fertilizer is expected to require 12.03 million tons, and potassium fertilizer is expected to need 13.21 million tons.
Wei Yong said that this year’s urea’s demand in agriculture has been stable, and urea -demand will also show a balanced state. In 2023, the demand for urea production in my country is about 4.5 million tons, which is 900,000 tons more than in 2022. If the exports increase, supply and demand will remain basically balanced.
Non -agricultural consumption is increasing
Wei Yong said that as my country pays more and more attention to grain safety, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer is expected to maintain a stable trend. At the same time, due to the adjustment and optimization of epidemic prevention policies, my country’s economic recovery has a good momentum, and the demand for urea in industrial is expected to increase.
Judging from the predestination of my country’s economic growth rate of China’s economic growth, the economic situation in my country is currently good, and the demand for non -agricultural demand will increase. Specifically, the “2022 China Economic Review and 2023 Economic Outlook in the Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences” believes that China’s GDP growth rate in 2023 is about 5%. The International Monetary Fund raised China’s GDP growth in 2023 to 5.2%. Citi Bank also raised China’s GDP growth in 2023 from 5.3%to 5.7%.
This year, my country’s real estate prosperity has picked up. Industry insiders pointed out that the newly introduced real estate policy in many places has favored the development of real estate, thereby stimulating the demand for furniture and home improvement, thereby increasing the demand for urea. It is expected that the non -agricultural demand of urea this year will reach 20.5 million tons, an increase of about 1.5 million tons year -on -year.
Zhang Jianhui, Secretary -General of the Progressive Adhesive and Coatings Professional Committee of the China Forestry Industry Association, also agreed with this. He said that with the optimization and adjustment of my country’s epidemic prevention policy this year and the implementation of the new real estate policy, the market has gradually recovered, and the demand for artificial board consumption that has been suppressed for three consecutive years will be quickly released. It is expected that the production of Chinese artificial boards will reach 340 million cubic meters in 2023, and urea consumption will exceed 12 million tons.
Post time: Mar-10-2023