Has the era of sky-high raw materials and freight gone?
Recently, there has been news that raw materials are falling again and again, and the world has begun to enter the price war. Will the chemical market be OK this year?
30% off shipment! Freight below pre-epidemic level!
The Shanghai Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) fell significantly. Data showed that the latest index dropped 11.73 points to 995.16, officially falling below the 1,000 mark and returning to the level before the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019. The freight rate of the Western American line and the European line has been lower than the cost price, and the eastern American line is also struggling around the cost price, with a decline of between 1% and 13%!
From the difficulty of obtaining a box in 2021 to the ubiquity of empty boxes, the transportation of many ports at home and abroad has gradually declined, facing the pressure of “empty container accumulation”.
Situation of each port:
South China ports such as Nansha Port, Shenzhen Yantian Port and Shenzhen Shekou Port are all facing the pressure of empty container stacking. Among them, Yantian Port has 6-7 layers of empty container stacking, which is about to break the largest amount of empty container stacking in the port in 29 years.
Shanghai Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port is also in the situation of high empty container accumulation.
The ports of Los Angeles, New York and Houston all have high levels of empty containers, and the terminals of New York and Houston are increasing the area for placing empty containers.
2021 shipping is short of 7 million TEU containers, while demand has been reduced since October 2022. The empty box is dropped. At present, it is estimated that more than 6 million TEUs have excess containers. Because there is no order, a large number of trucks have stopped in the domestic terminal, and the upstream and downstream logistics companies also say that the performance has decreased by 20%year -on -year! In January 2023, the collection company reduced the 27%capacity of the Asia -Europe line. Among the total 690 scheduled voyages of the main trading routes of the main trade routes across the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and Asia, and the Mediterranean Sea, in the 7th week (February 13th (February 13th From the 19th), 82 voyages were canceled from 5 weeks (March 13th to 19th), and the cancellation rate accounted for 12%.
In addition, according to data from the General Administration of Customs: In November 2022, my country’s exports to the United States plummeted by 25.4%. Behind this fierce decline is that manufacturing orders from the United States have fallen by 40%! U.S. orders return and other countries’ order transfer, excess capacity is continuing to increase.
The raw material has fallen below 5 years, and has fallen nearly 200,000!
In addition to the big drop in freight rates, due to the shift in demand and contraction, raw materials also began to fall sharply.
Since February, ABS has continued to decline. On February 16, the market price of ABS was 11,833.33 yuan/ton, down by 2,267 yuan/ton compared with the same period in 2022 (14,100 yuan/ton). Some brands even fell below five-year lows.
In addition, known as the “lithium all over the world” lithium industry chain, has also plummeted. Lithium carbonate soared from 40,000 yuan/ton in 2020 to 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022, a 13-fold increase in price. However, after the Spring Festival this year downstream on demand stock, market trading orders, according to the market, by February 17, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell 3000 yuan/ton, the average price of 430,000 yuan/ton, and in early December 2022 about 600,000 yuan/ton price, down nearly 200,000 yuan/ton, down more than 25%. It’s still going down!
Global trade upgrade, China and the United States “grabbing orders” open?
The capacity has decreased and the cost has plummeted, and some domestic companies have already started a round of holidays for nearly half a year. It can be seen that the situation of poor demand and weak markets is obvious. Overlapping war, shortage of resources, and global trade upgrades, countries are seizing the market after the epidemic to boost the country’s economy.
Among them, the United States has also increased investment in Europe while accelerating its own manufacturing reconstruction. According to relevant data, the US investment in the United States in the first half of 2022 was US $ 73.974 billion, while my country’s investment in the United States was only 148 million Dollar. These data show that the United States wants to build a European and American supply chain, which also shows that the global supply chain is changing, and Sino -US trade may rise to a “grabbing order” dispute.
In the future, there are still great fluctuations in the chemical industry. Some people in the industry say that external demand affects internal supply, and domestic enterprises will face the first severe survival test after the epidemic.
Post time: Feb-23-2023