Methanol Outlook
The domestic methanol market is expected to see differentiated adjustments in the short term. For ports, some inland supply may continue flowing in for arbitrage, and with concentrated import arrivals next week, inventory accumulation risks remain. Amid expectations of rising imports, short-term market confidence is weak. However, Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog provides some macroeconomic support. Port methanol prices are likely to fluctuate amid mixed bullish and bearish factors. Inland, upstream methanol producers hold limited inventory, and recent concentrated maintenance at production plants keeps supply pressure low. However, most downstream sectors—especially MTO—are facing severe losses with limited cost-pass-through capabilities. Additionally, downstream users in consumption regions hold high raw material inventories. After this week’s price rebound, traders are cautious about chasing further gains, and with no supply gap in the market, inland methanol prices are expected to consolidate amid mixed sentiments. Close attention should be paid to port inventory, olefin procurement, and macroeconomic developments.
Formaldehyde Outlook
Domestic formaldehyde prices are expected to consolidate with a weak bias this week. Supply adjustments are likely to be limited, while demand from downstream sectors such as wood panels, home decoration, and pesticides is seasonally shrinking, compounded by weather factors. Purchases will mostly remain need-based. With methanol prices expected to adjust differentially and volatility narrowing, cost-side support for formaldehyde will be limited. Market participants should closely monitor inventory levels in downstream wood panel plants and procurement trends across the supply chain.
Acetic Acid Outlook
The domestic acetic acid market is expected to remain weak this week. Supply is anticipated to increase, with Tianjin’s unit likely resuming operations and Shanghai Huayi’s new plant potentially starting production next week. Few planned maintenance shutdowns are expected, keeping overall operating rates high and sustaining strong sales pressure. Downstream buyers will focus on digesting long-term contracts in the first half of the month, with weak spot demand. Sellers are expected to maintain strong willingness to offload inventory, possibly at discounted prices. Additionally, methanol feedstock prices may decline next week, further pressuring the acetic acid market.
DMF Outlook
The domestic DMF market is expected to consolidate with a wait-and-see stance this week, though producers may still attempt to support prices, with isolated minor hikes possible. On the supply side, Xinghua’s plant remains shut, while Luxi’s Phase II unit is expected to continue ramping up, leaving overall supply largely stable. Demand remains sluggish, with downstream buyers maintaining need-based procurement. Methanol feedstock prices may see differentiated adjustments, with port methanol fluctuating amid mixed factors and inland prices consolidating. Market sentiment is cautious, with participants mostly following market trends and maintaining limited confidence in the near-term outlook.
Propylene Outlook
Recent supply-demand dynamics are clouded by frequent upstream and downstream unit changes, particularly the concentrated start-ups and shutdowns of PDH units this month, alongside planned maintenance at some major downstream plants. While supply-side support exists, weak demand limits price upside, keeping market sentiment cautious. Propylene prices are expected to trend weakly this week, with close attention needed on PDH unit operations and major downstream plant dynamics.
PP Granule Outlook
Supply-side pressure is rising as standard-grade production ratios decline, but new capacities—Zhenhai Refining Phase IV in East China and Yulong Petrochemical’s fourth line in North China—have begun ramping up, significantly increasing market supply and pressuring local homo- and copolymer prices. Few maintenance shutdowns are scheduled this week, further reducing supply losses. Downstream sectors like woven bags and films are operating at relatively low rates, mainly consuming existing inventory, while export demand cools. Overall weak demand continues to constrain the market, with a lack of positive catalysts keeping trading activity subdued. Most participants hold a pessimistic outlook, expecting PP prices to edge lower in consolidation.
Post time: Jul-14-2025