Introduction: Recently, domestic mixed xylene prices in China have entered another phase of stalemate and consolidation, with narrow-range fluctuations across regions and limited room for upward or downward breakthroughs. Since July, taking the spot price in Jiangsu port as an example, negotiations have hovered around the range of 6,000-6,180 yuan/ton, while price movements in other regions have also been confined to within 200 yuan/ton.
The stalemate in prices can be attributed to weak domestic supply and demand on one hand, and a lack of directional guidance from external markets on the other. From the perspective of domestic supply-demand dynamics, spot mixed xylene resources remain tight. Due to the prolonged closure of the import arbitrage window, commercial storage areas have seen few import arrivals, and domestic vessel supply has slightly decreased compared to earlier periods, leading to a further decline in inventory levels.
Although supply remains constrained, the tightness in mixed xylene supply has persisted for an extended period. Given that xylene prices have remained relatively high, the supportive effect of supply tightness on prices has weakened.
On the demand side, domestic consumption has been relatively weak in the earlier period. Because mixed xylene prices have been higher compared to other aromatic components, blending demand has been subdued. Since mid-June, the price spread between PX futures and domestic MX paper/spot contracts has gradually narrowed to 600-700 yuan/ton, reducing the willingness of PX plants to procure mixed xylene externally. Concurrently, maintenance at some PX units has also led to a decline in mixed xylene consumption.
However, recent mixed xylene demand has shown changes in tandem with fluctuations in the PX-MX spread. Since mid-July, PX futures have rebounded, widening the spread against mixed xylene spot and paper contracts. By late July, the gap had expanded back to a relatively wide range of 800-900 yuan/ton, restoring profitability for short-process MX-to-PX conversion. This has renewed PX plants’ enthusiasm for external mixed xylene procurement, providing support for mixed xylene prices.
While the strength in PX futures has provided a temporary boost to mixed xylene prices, the recent startup of new units such as Daxie Petrochemical, Zhenhai, and Yulong is expected to intensify domestic supply-demand imbalances in the later period. Although historically low inventories may slow the buildup of supply pressure, short-term structural support in supply and demand remains intact. However, the recent strength in the commodity market has largely been driven by macroeconomic sentiment, making the sustainability of PX futures’ rally uncertain.
Additionally, changes in the Asia-America arbitrage window warrant attention. The price spread between the two regions has narrowed recently, and if the arbitrage window closes, supply pressure for mixed xylene in Asia could increase. Overall, while short-term structural supply-demand support remains relatively strong, and the widening PX-MX spread provides some upward momentum, the current price level of mixed xylene—coupled with long-term shifts in supply-demand dynamics—limits the potential for sustained bullish trends in the long run.
Post time: Aug-05-2025