Since August, China’s domestic polyethylene (PE) market has been moving higher amid volatility. Supported by intensive plant maintenance shutdowns, low inventory across the industrial chain, and a rising geopolitical risk premium in crude oil, spot prices have climbed steadily, futures have strengthened in tandem, and bullish sentiment has warmed up.
Taking the East China market as an example, the average price of LLDPE in August was RMB 8,425/ton, up 4.14% month-on-month, with an intra-month high-low spread of about RMB 550/ton; LDPE averaged around RMB 10,444/ton, and HDPE raffia grades also moved higher in tandem. The uptrend extended into September: the spot average price of LLDPE (7042) rose from RMB 9,123/ton on September 7 to RMB 9,466/ton on September 14, up about 3.76% in a week; over the same period, PE futures stood at about RMB 8,598/ton, up about 2.86% week-on-week.
On the supply side, multiple domestic PE plants have been in concentrated maintenance shutdowns during August–September, with industry operating rates continuing to decline and supply returning more slowly than the market expected. Spot availability of domestic cargoes remains tight, imported cargoes are also scarce, and with inventories at petrochemical plants and traders staying at low levels overall, the market has formed strong bottom-line support for prices.
On costs, the Iran-US situation remains tense, with Iran’s tone turning more hawkish and the Strait of Hormuz staying blocked, pushing the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil higher once again. This has driven up production costs for ethylene and polyethylene, making it a key driver of the current rally. On the demand side, downstream sectors are gradually entering the traditional peak season: agricultural film operating rates are recovering steadily, and orders in packaging film, pipe and other segments are picking up. However, with PE prices climbing continuously, terminal processors are seeing their margins squeezed, and their enthusiasm for early stockpiling is relatively weak, with purchases mostly on a need-basis — a factor that is curbing the magnitude of gains.
Looking ahead, the market generally expects PE prices to “rise first and then fall.” On the one hand, tight supply and cost support will persist in the near term, keeping prices at elevated levels; on the other hand, maintenance-shutdown plants will gradually restart in September, and supply pressure will re-emerge as output returns. Going forward, market attention should focus on the evolution of geopolitical tensions, the pace of new capacity additions, and downstream restocking intentions. Analysts caution that if geopolitical risks ease alongside supply increases, the market may correct quickly, advising industry chain players to arrange purchasing schedules prudently and guard against price volatility risks.
Post time: Oct-08-2026