Driven by phased concentrated trading activity, refinery inventories of mixed xylene have rapidly declined, with producers engaging in varying degrees of pre-sales. Despite a significant increase in import arrivals at East China ports, leading to higher inventory levels compared to earlier periods, port inventories remain at low-to-moderate levels relative to historical norms and current demand growth. This prevents downward pressure on prices.
In addition to the structural supply-demand improvement from temporary consumption increases by PX plants, recent market positives have accumulated. Following the U.S.-China tariff agreement, market confidence has strengthened. Crude oil futures prices have surged consecutively, and domestic chemical commodity futures have broadly rallied. The overall bullish market trend and favorable macro environment have boosted trading activity for xylene paper contracts, further driving spot prices upward.
Post-Phased Surge: Long-Term Drivers and Supply-Demand Structural Shifts for Mixed Xylene
From a fundamental perspective, domestic plant maintenance remains widespread. However, with some maintenance concluding and new plants commencing operations in May, mixed xylene supply has shown a slight month-on-month increase. Additional new plants are expected to start in June-July, but rotating maintenance schedules will persist. Mixed xylene supply is projected to rise modestly.
The current price rally is primarily driven by a single factor: rising PX futures prices. Support from blending demand and other downstream chemical sectors remains weak. Pre-holiday (Dragon Boat Festival) gasoline blending demand lacks significant restocking momentum, and June-July traditionally mark a seasonal lull for blending demand. This weak consumption of mixed xylene will struggle to sustain price momentum.
Due to the Singular Driving Factor, Future Mixed Xylene Prices Will Closely Track PX Futures.
Short-term PX plant maintenance remains frequent, but as idled units gradually resume operations, supply tightness will ease. Furthermore, downstream PTA industry operating rates face challenges in recovery. After consecutive surges, upward room for PX prices is narrowing, which will also cap the upside for mixed xylene prices
Post time: May-16-2025