Introduction: Considering multiple domestic and international factors, preliminary forecasts suggest that China’s acrylonitrile market in the second half of the year is more likely to experience a decline followed by a rebound. However, low industry profits may largely limit the range of price fluctuations.
Raw Materials:
Propylene: The supply-demand balance is expected to remain relatively loose. As oversupply begins to emerge, propylene is gradually showing a weaker-than-expected performance during peak season, with price trends more noticeably influenced by supply-side changes.
Synthetic: Ammonia: Preliminary estimates indicate that China’s synthetic ammonia market may see a modest rebound after a period of low consolidation in the second half of the year. However, ample market supply and restricted exports of downstream fertilizers will maintain domestic supply-demand pressure. Prices in major production regions are unlikely to surge as they did in previous years, with upward adjustments becoming more rational.
Supply Side:
In the second half of 2025, China’s acrylonitrile supply is expected to see some incremental growth, though the overall increase in trade volume may remain limited. Some projects may face delays, pushing actual production start-ups to next year. Based on current project tracking:
● Jilin **’s 260,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile project is scheduled for production in Q3.
● Tianjin **’s 130,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile facility has been completed and is expected to begin production around Q4 (subject to confirmation).
Once operational, China’s total acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 5.709 million tons per year, a 30% year-on-year increase.
Demand Side:
In the second half of 2025, new ABS units are planned for commissioning in China:
● **Petrochemical’s remaining 300,000-ton-per-year production line is expected to come online.
● Jilin Petrochemical’s new 600,000-ton-per-year unit is slated for production in Q4.
Additionally, Daqing **’s facility, operational since mid-June, will gradually ramp up output in the second half, while **Petrochemical’s Phase II unit is expected to increase to full capacity. Overall, domestic ABS supply is projected to grow further in the latter half of the year.
The acrylamide industry also has multiple new plants scheduled for commissioning in 2025. Downstream capacity will see significant expansion in 2025-2026, though post-commissioning utilization rates remain a key factor.
Overall Outlook:
The acrylonitrile market in the second half of 2025 may trend downward initially before rebounding. Prices in July and August could hit yearly lows, with a potential rebound if propylene costs provide support in August-September—though the upside may be limited. This is primarily due to weak profitability in downstream acrylonitrile sectors, dampening production enthusiasm and capping demand growth.
While the traditional “Golden September, Silver October” seasonal demand may provide some market uplift, the overall boost is expected to be modest. Key constraints include new production capacity coming online in Q3, sustaining supply growth and weighing on market confidence. Close monitoring of downstream ABS project progress remains essential.
Post time: Jul-21-2025